Blog week ending, 13th February 2026
Markets:
- Local and global equity markets rose, except for the US, where technology stocks came under pressure.
- Australian half-year corporate reporting season got underway with a strong start from the banks, notably CBA and ANZ. The last reporting season in August was one of the most volatile on record.
- In local stock news, REA’s (realestate.com) first half result slightly missed market expectations. Revenue was up 5% whilst net profit from core operations was up 9%.
- Rio Tinto failed in its fourth attempt to merge with Glencore, with both parties walking away from a deal because of price disagreement. Rio will need to find another way to reduce their heavy reliance on iron ore.
- CAR (Carsales.com) reported an inline set of numbers for the half-year whilst reaffirming its full-year guidance.
- Macquarie Group’s third quarter profit was supported by its commodities and global markets division as well as a strong performance in its asset management unit.
- CSL shares fell after the sudden retirement of CEO Paul McKenzie, which followed concerns regarding the company’s growth prospects. The company also posted an 81% drop in first half profit.
- The Australian 10-year government bond yield continued to rise hovering near its highest level in more than two years. The move comes after the RBA signalled that interest rates would need to remain restrictive to tackle more persistent inflation.
- Prime Minister Takaichi’s consolidation of power in the Japanese lower house put further downward pressure on the Japanese Yen, with some speculating intervention may be required.
- The Chinese Yuan neared its highest level against the US dollar in nearly three years as momentum builds following calls from regulators urging financial institutions to curb excessive exposure to US Treasuries.
- The Australian Dollar rose above US71 cents for the first time since January 2023, supported by rebounding commodity prices and a higher local interest rate outlook.
Economics:
- Australian business confidence rose in January to its highest reading since October. Meanwhile, business conditions weakened due to declines in both sales and profits, while employment held steady for the third straight month.
- Australian consumer sentiment dropped 2.6% in February to a ten-month low, extending January’s 1.7% fall and marking the third straight monthly decline. Household finances weakened further.
- A key Australian household spending indicator decreased by 0.4% in December, following very strong growth in October and November. The monthly change was slightly weaker than market expectations. Over the year, spending is up 5%, also below expectations.
- The value of new owner-occupied loan commitments for dwellings in Australia jumped 10.6% in the December quarter to a record high $65.3 billion, accelerating from a strong gain in the previous quarter.
- Australian new housing lending rose strongly again in the December quarter, up by 9.5% to be 23.5% higher through the year. Banks are lending very aggressively.
- The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in January, a sharp increase from the downwardly revised gain of 48,000 in December and well above forecasts of 70,000. It was the highest figure since December 2024. Growth in private-sector payrolls was even more pronounced.
- US job openings fell by 386,000 to 6.5 million in December, the lowest since December 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.2 million. Professional & business services, retail trade, and finance & insurance saw the sharpest falls.
- A key US consumer sentiment index rose in February, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and ahead of market expectations. Despite the improvement, sentiment remained approximately 20% below its January 2025 level as well as quite mixed across households.
- US December retail sales were flat versus the previous month coming in below expectations for a small increase. Eight of the thirteen retail categories posted decreases.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doesn’t expect the central bank to move quickly to shrink its balance sheet (quantitative tightening), even under President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh.
- German industrial output dropped sharply, marking the first decline since August, with output falling 1.9% in December.
- China’s annual inflation eased sharply to 0.2% in January, marking the lowest print since October whilst missing expectations. Producer prices dropped 1.4% in January versus the same time last year, slowing from a 1.9% fall in December but extending the contraction to a 40th consecutive month.
- China’s central bank extended their gold purchasing streak to fifteen months despite the recent volatility in the gold price.
- Taiwan’s exports surged almost 70% in January, the fastest growth in 16 years, driven by A.I. demand.
Politics:
- The recent fracture between the federal Liberal Party and the National Party has come to an end with the long-standing coalition now formally reformed.
- Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi secured a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house in a historic victory. Her coalition won 352 of the 465 seats in the lower house giving her greater power to push through her stimulus plans.
- US President Trump touted positive Iran talks which will continue next week but has cautioned severe repercussions if no deal is reached. Iran is refusing to end their uranium enrichment program.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
