Blog week ending, 6th February 2026
Markets:
- Local and global markets were mixed this week with the US lower on AI expenditure concerns and software competitive threats whilst Australian, Asian, and European markets held up better.
- In local stock news, precious metal miners fell sharply late last week and into early this week, with Newmont down around 10%, as the price of gold dropped by more than $1,000 and silver erased its gains for the year. Iron ore and copper miners were also caught up in the fall.
- Mining stocks then rebounded, although trading remained volatile, with diversified miners faring better than precious metal miners. BHP’s share price recovery saw them overtake CBA as Australia’s biggest company.
- Nine Entertainment shares rose strongly after the company offloaded its major radio assets and inked a deal to buy outdoor advertising group QMS.
- Lynas Rare Earths rallied following the US’s announced plans for a critical minerals stockpile.
- Precious metal prices remained volatile, negatively impacted by intense profit taking from investors following the nomination by US President Trump of a new US central bank chair, before buyer support resumed. Prices are still well up on a year ago and finished higher for the week.
Economics:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85%, in line with expectations, in a unanimous decision by the Board. They raised their inflation forecasts and now believe that financial conditions aren’t tight enough to quell demand/supply imbalances.
- Australian private sector credit grew0.8% in December, coming in higher than expected, to be 7.7% higher through the year. Housing credit was led by investors, where the annual rate is the strongest since 2015. Business credit continues to boom.
- Australian national home prices rose by 0.8% in January, an acceleration from the 0.6% increase recorded in December. Dwelling prices are 9.4% higher annually. Smaller capital cities continued to outperform Sydney and Melbourne, though they also saw a marginal pick up from December.
- Australian producer prices increased 0.8% in the December quarter, slowing from a 1% rise in the previous quarter and coming in softer than market estimates. Property operators led the rise with sustained demand in the residential property sector.
- Australian building approvals retreated by almost 15% in December to 15,542. The fall was driven by a large 29.8% fall in private sector multi-unit approvals, whilst private sector detached dwelling approvals rose by 0.4%.
- Australia’s goods exports grew 1% in December recovering from an upwardly revised 4% fall in November. The increase was driven by a 3% rise in metal ores and minerals.
- In January, US private businesses added 32,000 jobs, below the forecasted 48,000, after December’s result was revised down to a 37,000 increase.
- US manufacturing activity picked up in January, coming in above expectations and improving from December’s five‑month low. The stronger result was driven by a solid lift in output, the fastest since last August, alongside a modest rebound in new orders.
- US producer prices rose by 0.5% in December, the largest gain in three months and ahead of expectations. Much of the rise came from a sharp rebound in services prices after they were flat in November.
- The Euro area economy grew 1.3% over the year to the December quarter, its slowest pace in a year but only slightly softer than the prior quarter. Even so, the result was better than expected.
- Euro area manufacturing rose in January, broadly in line with estimates and up from December’s nine-month low. Despite the improvement, the sector continued to contract for a third straight month.
- Euro area annual inflation decreased to 1.70% in January from 1.90% in December, falling to its lowest since September 2024, as energy prices declined.
- The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75% in February, with a narrow 5-4 vote, as policymakers balanced easing inflation pressures against risks from a weakening economy.
- Japan’s unemployment rate held at 2.6% in December 2025, unchanged for a fourth consecutive month and in line with market expectations. The figure remained the highest since July 2024.
- Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s recent meeting indicated growing support to hike interest rates as Yen weakness risks higher inflation.
- Chinese manufacturing activity fell in January from the previous month, missing market estimates. The reading signalled a loss of momentum in factory activity, with subdued demand conditions and cautious business sentiment.
Politics:
- US President Trump announced that his nomination for the chairman of the central bank is Kevin Warsh, who was in the running for the role back in 2017. Whilst Warsh has recently expressed support for further rate cuts, he has a history of being hawkish (i.e. preferring higher rates).
- US President Trump is set to launch a strategic critical minerals stockpile supported by US$12 billion in initial funding, as the US seeks to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths and other metals.
- Iran hopes that diplomatic efforts to avert a war with the US will progress soon, with US naval armada nearing Iran’s waters.
- The US will slash tariffs on India to 18% after PM Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil, easing tensions between the two countries.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
