Blog week ending, 24th April 2026
Markets:
- Equity markets had a mixed week, as investors digested a last-minute, indefinite extension to the US-Israel / Iran ceasefire, whilst US tech stocks attempted to restore investor confidence.
- In local stock news, Cochlear’s shock profit guidance cut saw the company slash its 2026 financial year earnings outlook by roughly 30%. The announcement sent shares down more than 40% to their lowest level in a decade.
- CSL shares fell to a nine-year low after the US military scrapped its annual flu vaccination mandate for service members, removing a key source of demand for the company.
- Viva Energy shares dropped 9% after emerging from a trading halt following a fire at its Geelong refinery. The company said the facility would is expected to return to 90% of regular production capacity within the coming weeks.
- National Australia Bank and Worley Limited trimmed their earnings outlooks due to the Iran war’s impact on fuel and transport costs. Both stocks subsequently fell.
- BHP announced a long-term iron ore supply deal with China following months of disruption, and said full-year copper production is now expected to come in toward the upper half of guidance.
- Rio Tinto shares rose after reporting a 9% lift in March-quarter copper production, driven by the ramp-up of its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia.
- Corporate Travel Management revised up the amount of revenue requiring adjustment, noting the figure could increase further. The company confirmed the issue is confined to its UK business and said repayments to affected client will be made in stages. Management has indicated it has the support of its banks and industry bodies, with shares remaining in a trading halt.
- Oil prices moved higher during the week, pushing back toward the US$100 per barrel mark amid the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement, no multilateral extension, and renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Economics:
- The IMF downgraded its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, from 3.3% warning that growth could slow toward 2.5% if oil supply disruptions persist.
- Leading global oil traders warned that the continued closure of the Strait is increasing the risk of a global recession.
- Australian manufacturing activity returned to expansion in April, although output continued to decline at a slower pace. New orders, employment, and inventories all edged lower but remained relatively stable.
- US Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he supports regime changes at the Fed including a new inflation framework, fewer policy meetings, and a smaller balance sheet. He also suggested A.I. productivity gains could eventually allow for lower interest rates.
- US retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, well above expectations of a 1.4% increase and the strongest monthly gain since February 2025. The surge was driven by record 15.5% surge in petrol station sales following sharp fuel price increases, while spending in other categories remained solid.
- Eurozone private-sector activity recorded its sharpest contraction since November 2024 in April. Services activity dropped to a five-year low, whilst manufacturing expanded despite difficulties to sourcing input goods. Input cost pressures rose to their highest since the end of 2022.
- A key German economic sentiment index slumped in April, dropping to its lowest reading since December 2022 and well below market expectations.
- Japanese manufacturing activity expanded strongly in April, surpassing market forecasts, and marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. Growth was the fastest since January 2022.
- China’s central bank maintained its key lending rates at record lows for an 11th straight month in April, in line with market expectations.
- Chinese producer price inflation turned positive in March for the first time in more than three years, rising 0.5% as soaring oil prices lifted factory inflation.
- Export growth surged across key Asian economies, with South Korean exports up 49% in the first 20 days of April, underpinned by a massive increase in semiconductor shipments. Taiwanese export orders also surged almost 66% year-on-year to an all-time high, well ahead of expectations.
Politics:
- Early in the week, US President Trump announced the Strait was fully open to commercial traffic while confirming the US naval blockade will remain in place. Iran immediately described the blockade as a ceasefire violation. Tensions escalated after a US destroyer seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship prompting Iran to re-close the Strait and later fire on two India-flagged tankers.
- President Trump initially ruled out any extension to the ceasefire, before unilaterally extending it just hours before it was reportedly due to expire. He added that the truce would be in effect until Iranian officials present a unified proposal. Iran has countered that US actions are preventing any meaningful agreement from being reached.
- The US federal government has begun refunding tariffs collected for imported goods following a court ruling that struck down tariffs imposed in 2025. However, most businesses had already passed these costs onto consumers, meaning households are unlikely to see any direct benefit from the refunds.
- Chinese President Xi warned that the Strait must remain fully open to commercial vessels. In response, President Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if Beijing supplies air defence systems to Iran, ahead of his scheduled May 14-15 summit with President Xi in Beijing.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
