Blog week ending, 25th September 2026
Markets:
- Local and global equity markets trod water for much of the week as government bond yields continued to rise and investors awaited news from the UN General Assembly and US-China trade meetings.
- Prominent Japanese technology conglomerate SoftBank received over US$20 billion in demand for a US$10 billion bond deal, making it one of the largest junk bond deals ever.
- Commercial property sales in 2026 have reached $48.4 billion, up 6% from the same period in 2025. A key driver of the rise has been offshore investment, which accounts for 34% of all trading volume.
- Copper futures prices climbed, reaching fresh all-time highs, as persistent supply concerns and strong demand continued to drive prices higher.
- Oil prices touched their lowest level since September 8, trading near US$98 a barrel, after a senior Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the US eased pressure.
- Subsequently, oil prices reversed these losses and finished higher for the week following US President Trump’s mixed remarks on Iran at the UN General Assembly.
- The Aussie dollar fell back to US70 cents as the US dollar strengthened on surging US government bond yields.
Economy:
- Australia’s population rose by 0.5% in the March quarter to 27.9 million people, with the annual growth rate edging down to 1.4%. This was the slowest pace since Q2 2022, with net overseas migration continuing to normalise but remaining above pre-COVID levels. The natural increase remains close to the lowest level on record.
- The Australian housing market continues to slide, with auction clearance rates in capital cities falling from a week earlier and the number of auctions lower than a year earlier.
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary panel that the board must decide whether tightening to date is sufficient to return inflation to target within a reasonable time. Markets have now priced a 91% chance of a rate hike next week.
- Australian manufacturing data showed that activity declined in September from August, marking the sector’s first negative reading since March. Manufacturing output declined sharply, marking its strongest contraction in 21 months.
- US industrial production was unchanged in August after rising 0.2% in July, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% rise. Manufacturing output declined 0.3% ending a seven-month streak of consecutive increases.
- US factory output unexpectedly fell 0.3% in August, the first decline of the year and coming in against estimates for a 0.3% advance, as business equipment production cooled and input costs rose.
- Eurozone consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased to 3% in August from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also increased.
- The German services sector rose to a seven-month high in August, coming in well above expectations and signalling renewed expansion in business activity after five consecutive months of contraction.
- The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 0.25% to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote at its September meeting, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since April 1995. The split decision highlights growing divisions over the pace of rate normalisation.
- Japan’s core inflation slowed to 1.7% in August from the same period last year, down from 1.8% in July, marking its first decline in four months.
- The Chinese central bank left its key cash rate at a record low for the 16th straight month in September, in line with market expectations.
- Taiwan export orders jumped 71% on the same period last year to a record US$103 billion in August, topping US$100 billion for the first time and beating estimates of a 63% increase.
- Indian data showed the fastest expansion in private-sector activity since June, remaining above its long-run average. Manufacturing activity recorded the strongest improvement since February.
Politics:
- Energy risks rose over the weekend as Houthi forces targeted Riyadh for the first time and Ukraine struck the Moscow oil refinery. The developments came ahead of US-China trade talks in New York, which US Treasury Secretary Bessent later described as “very successful”.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a two-month tariff truce with China, shorter than originally floated.
- Australia’s corporate watchdog has put the private debt industry on notice to expect more enforcement action in one of its sternest rebukes of poor practices, following the insolvency of Sydney developer Bathla Group. The news comes after Australian Retirement Trust said it had a small exposure to Bathla.
- President Trump told the UN that he expected a deal with Iran to be reached shortly after the November midterm elections, saying the US faces a choice between a deal and “wiping out Iran”.
- OpenAI’s artificial intelligence agents appear to have used a German coding website to coordinate attempts to gain access to Australian government Medicare data.
This information is general advice and does not take account of investors’ objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to their objectives, financial situation or needs.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
