Blog week ending, 10th July 2026
Markets:
- Equity markets gave back early gains to finish the week broadly flat to slightly lower, as US-Iran hostilities resumed.
- In local stock news, WiseTech Global shares rose more than 5% after co-founder Richard White stepped down as Executive Chair amid allegations he strongly denies. White remains on the board and continues in his role as Chief Innovation Officer.
- Telstra shares fell to a five-month low following a major network outage, before recovering some of those losses later in the week.
- BHP Group received environmental approval for a key project as part of its planned expansion of Chilean copper operations, with global copper supply remaining tight and demand expectations continuing to strengthen.
- OPEC+ approved a further production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August, while oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of normalising as shipping activity recovered.
- Oil prices later surged as escalating tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
Economy:
- The IMF left its 2026 global growth forecast broadly unchanged at 3%, citing the global economy’s resilience in the face of the Iran conflict and continued strength in AI-related investment. Its 2027 growth outlook was revised upward to 3.4% from 3.2%.
- Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting highlighted a divided Board on the outlook for interest rates, with policy makers discussing a range of economic scenarios. While several members expressed concern about ongoing inflation pressures, some argued that further rate increases may still be required.
- The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the downwardly revised 129,000 created in May and below expectations for 110,000. It was the weakest monthly employment gain in four months following a period of stronger labour market outcomes.
- US factory orders fell 1.3% in May, following a revised 5.3% surge increase in April. While the result was better than expectations for a 1.8% decline, it reflected a sharp drop in transportation equipment orders.
- US services activity eased in June, broadly in line with expectations. Business activity and new orders slowed, although employment jumped and prices pressures eased to a four-month low. Despite the moderation, the sector continued to signal solid expansion.
- The US goods and services trade deficit widened to US$77.6 billion in May, up from a revised US$54.6 billion in April and the largest deficit since March 2025.Exports fell 3.2%, whilst imports rose 3.3%.
- US existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June, falling to an annualised pace of 4.9 million against expectations for a gain.
- European Central Bank officials agreed to avoid providing explicit guidance on the future path of interest rates following June’s first rate hike since 2023, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around the economic and inflation outlook.
- Eurozone manufacturing and services activity stabilised in June, ending two months of contraction. Services weakness eased, while input cost inflation slowed to its lowest pace since the Middle East conflict began.
- Germany’s industrial production rose 0.9% in May, surpassing market expectations and accelerating from April’s revised 0.2% increase. It was the strongest monthly gain since September last year.
- UK services activity fell in June, recording the softest reading since January 2023 as new orders dropped for a fourth consecutive month amid softer demand, ongoing cost pressures, and political uncertainty.
- Japanese household spending fell 0.4% in May, following a 0.5% decline in the April. While this marked a sixth consecutive monthly contraction, the result was considerably better than expectations for a 2.5% fall.
- Chinese manufacturing activity eased from May’s three-month high in June but still exceeded forecasts. Growth in new orders and resilient export demand provided support for overall activity.
- China’s annual inflation rate eased to 1% in June, down from 1.2% in both April and May and slightly below market expectations. Consumer prices fell 0.3% over the month, reflecting subdued domestic demand.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate by 0.25% to 2.50% in July, the first increase in three years and in line with expectations as policymakers sought to return inflations to their 2% target.
Politics:
- The US revoked the waiver allowing Iran to continue exporting oil, following attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. A US official described the arrangement as conditional and dependent on Iran meeting agreed commitments.
- Iran subsequently claimed responsibility for attacks on 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, in response to US strikes targeting Iranian ports, missile and drone facilities, and air defences. The US said its actions were retaliation for Iran’s alleged involvement in attacks on two oil tankers in the Strait. President Trump later stated that the interim agreement between the two countries was no longer in effect.
- World leaders gathered in Turkey for the NATO Summit, where discussions are expected to be dominated by several contentious issues, including Greenland, European defence spending, and the ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
