Blog week ending, 27th February 2026
Markets:
- Local and global markets mostly headed higher this week as Chinese markets reopened, whilst investors waited with bated breath on the Nvidia result and ongoing US-Iran talks.
- In local stock news, Newmont outperformed its December quarter expectations, buoyed by the surge in gold price, announcing US$1.4 billion in asset development.
- Ampol shares declined after the company reported first-half net profit after tax of $82.4 million, around one-third lower than the same period last year.
- BHP shares exceeded $55 for the first time in their history, coinciding with Chinese capital markets reopening and growing optimism around the commodities outlook.
- Woodside shares rose after the company posted record full-year production, despite a drop in bottom-line and underlying profit. Operational performance was strong, with costs reduced and productions reaching an all-time high of 198.8 million barrels.
- Woolworths shares climbed sharply after reporting a strong half-year profit and noting improving consumer demand, particularly for discounted items.
- Iron ore prices rebounded from seven-month lows as economic activity in China picked up. However, expectations still point to softer steel demand in the first half and lingering concerns around oversupply.
- Oil prices eased this week following a strong recent run, with extended US-Iran talks and plans for OPEC+ to raise oil output by April weighing on sentiment.
- The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar this week, after domestic inflation came in higher than expected.
Economics:
- Australian annual inflation held at 3.8% in January, unchanged from December but slightly above expectations of 3.7, remaining outside the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Services inflation eased from its two-year high while goods inflation picked up.
- Construction activity in Australia edged down 0.1% in the December quarter, driven by a fall in engineering work. Total private sector building activity continued to rise strongly, public sector work increased modestly, and both residential and non-residential construction grew at a steady pace.
- Central bank commentary from both the US and Europe was in focus this week, with a March US rate cut now seen as a coin-flip following a strong jobs report, while the ECB Chair signalled comfort with keeping rates on hold.
- The US economy grew at an annualised 1.4% in the December quarter, a sharp slowdown from 4.4% in the prior quarter and well below expectations. Consumer spending softened, and both government spending and investment fell sharply amid the government shutdown.
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 2.7% annualised in the December quarter, exceeding expectations, with both goods and services prices rising strongly in the final month of the year.
- US manufacturing activity weakened in February, missing expectations but still indicating expansion. It was the softest reading in seven months, with slower growth in factory output, new orders, and employments.
- Euro area inflation was confirmed at 1.7% in January, down from 2% in December, marking its lowest level since September 2024, with slower price growth across services, food, and energy
- Eurozone manufacturing strengthened in February, beating forecasts and marking the strongest improvement in business conditions since June 2022. Production and new orders supported the lift, although staffing levels continued to decline
- UK retail sales jumped 1.8% in January, far exceeding expectations of a 0.2% rise and accelerating from December’s 0.4% increase. It was the strongest monthly gain since May 2024, supported by rate cuts and easing inflation.
- Japanese manufacturing expanded in February, posting its strongest growth since May 2022, driven by firm domestic and external demand.
- Japan’s annual inflation eased to 1.5% in January down from 2.1% in December, and the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a fifteen-month low, while inflation also eased across transport, healthcare, and household goods. Energy prices remained negative for a second month due to subsidies.
Politics:
- The US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling. In response, the administration indicated it has several alternative options to keep tariffs in place and announced an increase in the baseline tariff rate to 15%. Tariff collection has been paused in the meantime.
- US-Iran talks continued this week, alongside a further build-up of US assets in the region. Within the administration, some advisers pushed back, arguing the Iran issue distracts from domestic priorities. A nuclear proposal from Iran remains still possible, though Iranian officials have warned they are prepared to respond if required.
- President Trump delivered his annual State of the Union address, declaring he had “ushered in the golden age of America”, despite sagging approval ratings riser voter frustration. The speech offered no new details on the administration’s approach to Iran.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
