Blog week ending, 16th January 2026
Markets:
- Local markets climbed to nine-week highs, buoyed by strong investor appetite for miners and commodity stocks.
- Global markets were mixed with the US weaker following a soft start to the December quarter reporting season whilst other markets strengthened.
- In local stock news, speculation of a Rio Tinto / Glencore merger continued, with talks reportedly heating up.
- Aristocrat Leisure will be the beneficiary of a $190 million settlement after finalising a lawsuit against their rival Light & Wonder for copying Aristocrat’s trade secrets. The share prices of both companies rose after the announcement.
- Super Retail Group shares fell to a six-month low after the company posted record sales, as elevated promotional intensity impacted margins, particularly at Rebel Sports.
- Gold stocks were boosted by rising gold prices following concerns the US was preparing for a possible strike on Iran. Newmont jumped almost 6%, reaching an all-time high.
- Insurance company share prices came under pressure amid the catastrophic bushfires in Victoria and ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji in Queensland.
- Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze will step down at the end of June after twelve years in charge, with a search for her successor underway.
- Oil prices rose to the highest in a month after US President Trump announced new tariffs on Iran’s trading partners. The move intensified pressure on the country amid widespread domestic unrest.
- The Japanese Yen continued to weaken against the US dollar, falling to its lowest level in a year amid rising political uncertainty that new PM Takaichi could dissolve parliament.
Economics:
- Australian household spending rose strongly by 1% in November, materially higher than expected, to be 6.3% higher for the year. Discretionary goods drove the growth in November as households took advantage of Black Friday sales.
- Australian consumer sentiment slipped in January to a three-month low, extending December’s sharp plunge as shifting interest rate expectations weighed on confidence.
- Australian job vacancies fell to 326,700 in the three months to November 2025. This leaves vacancies 5.1% lower than a year ago.
- US December core inflation came in slightly cooler than expected, though the data remains noisy amid recent government shutdown distortions. Annualised inflation is now at 2.7% with shelter remaining the primary driver whilst grocery prices recorded their largest spike since December 2022.
- US employment rose less than expected (50,000 vs 60,000) whilst the unemployment rate slipped to 4.4% against expectations of 4.5%.
- US consumer sentiment improved in December, coming in above expectations. It was the highest reading since September and up for the second straight month.
- US retail sales rose 0.6% in November, the largest gain since July, rebounding from a revised 0.1% decline in October and exceeding forecasts of a 0.4% increase. The rise was driven by a rebound in auto sales.
- US producer prices rose 0.2% in November, accelerating from a 0.1% increase in October and matching market expectations. Energy costs applied the upward pressure.
- UK retail sales rose 1% in December, marking the weakest growth in seven months, as households reined in holiday spending amid persistent cost pressures.
- The UK economy expanded by 0.3% in November, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in October and outperforming market expectations of 0.1% growth. The services sector led the recovery.
- China’s inflation accelerated to 0.8% led by food costs, but deflationary risks persist.
Politics:
- US President Trump cancelled a second Venezuelan attack citing improved cooperation. Trump also said that their move on Venezuela does not give Beijing precedent of Taiwan, “but that it was up to Xi”.
- US President Trump says he will cap rates on credit cards of 10% for one year, setting a 20 January deadline for companies to comply.
- US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank had been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department, threatening a criminal indictment related to his testimony on renovations to the Fed’s headquarters.
- Protests in Iran intensified, with widely varying reports on the number of dead and the number arrested, with the US and Israel monitoring closely. Iran’s foreign ministry said security forces have full control after weeks of violent unrest and warned the US against involvement.
- G7 ministers are set to meet in the US to coordinate efforts to diversify rare earths supply away from China.
This information is general advice and does not take account of investors’ objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to their objectives, financial situation or needs.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
