Blog week ending, 10th April 2026
Markets:
- Local and global asset prices received a boost this week following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East.
<br> - Japan’s 10-year government bond yield remained near its highest level in three decades reflecting expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its April meeting.
- In local stock news, NextDC shares soared as the data centre owner and operator secured $1 billion in funding backed by a Canadian pension fund.
- Guzman Y Gomez shares surged 18% supported by strong sales update.
- Woodside shares fell sharply following the ceasefire announcement and the subsequent fall in oil prices, though the stock remains well up since the conflict begun.
- Gold prices climbed to three-week highs after confirmation of the US-Israel/Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan.
- Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased to its highest level since the early stages of the conflict. After peaking above US$115 per barrel earlier in the week, oil finished below US$100. Meanwhile, Russian crude prices rose to their highest level in more than 13 years as Moscow continued to benefit from elevated prices.
- The Australian dollar rose back above US70c as the US dollar fell on ceasefire news, bringing currency traders back toward risk-on currencies.
Economics:
- Australian household spending rose in February, pointing to resilient consumer demand prior to the conflict in Iran. Consumption came in above of expectations.
- Australia’s trade surplus widened to $5.69 billion in February, up from a downwardly revised $2.26 billion in January and marking the largest surplus since July 2025. The improvement was driven by higher exports and a fall in imports.
- Westpac Bank CEO Anthony Miller warned the Middle East conflict has increased the risk of a recession in Australia, noting uncertainty over how long supply disruptions from the conflict may take to flow through the economy.
- US economic growth for the December quarter of 2025 was revised down sharply to an annualised 0.5%, from earlier estimates of 1.4% and 0.7%. The downgrade reflected a significant pull back in investment, weaker than expected consumer spending, and a larger decline in residential investment.
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.4% in March, matching February’s ten-month high and coming in line with expectations. Despite this, the annual inflation rate eased to 3%.
- US services activity contracted in March, marking the first contraction in the sector in over three years. The slowdown reflected the weakest growth in new business since April 2024, with firms citing reduced client confidence and softer demand.
- US private payrolls increased by 186,000 in March, the largest increase since December 2024. This followed a revised 129,000 rise in February and far exceeded forecasts for a 70,000 gain, with healthcare and construction leading the growth.
- Federal Reserve officials warned the energy shock from the war is likely to lift inflation, complicating decisions around the future path of interest rates. The March minutes noted that some policymakers suggested the committee may even consider additional rate hikes.
- Euro area private sector activity slowed to its weakest expansion since June 2025, weighed down by soaring energy prices, disrupted supply chains, financial market volatility, and weakening demand linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
- Germany’s factory orders rose 0.9% in February, rebounding from an 11.1% slump in January but falling short of expectations for a 2% increase. The recovery was driven by the automotive sector, a notable shift after a prolonged period of underperformance for the sector.
- UK business activity was revised down sharply in March, marking the slowest growth in six months and indicating only marginal expansion. Services activity stalled, manufacturing output contracted again, input cost pressures intensified, and business confidence plunged.
- Chinese services activity eased in March retreating from a three-year high in February and marking the slowest expansion in three months. New business growth softened to its weakest rate since April 2025, while firms cut staffing at the fastest pace in six months.
- The Reserve Bank of India left its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second straight meeting, maintaining a neutral stance during its first monetary policy meeting this year, in line with expectations.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also held its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at its April meeting, as widely anticipated.
Politics:
- Australian Parliament passed legislation expanding the powers of the country’s export credit agency, allowing it to buy, stockpile, and sell fuels, as well as critical minerals including rare earths, to strengthen supply security.
- The Australian Federal Government said it has received guarantees from key Asian fuel exporters- Japan, South Korea and Singapore – that supply flows will continue as normal despite disruptions caused by the Middle Eastern conflict. Australia is also seeking additional fuel supplies from the US and Mexico.
- Volatility around the Iran conflict continued, with shifting US deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz followed by the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. The ceasefire quickly unravelled after Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon extending towards Beirut. The deal was contingent on the Strait being opened, however Iran accused Israel of breaching the agreement almost immediately.
- President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on any country supplying weapons to Iran.
This information is general advice and does not take account of investors’ objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, investors should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to their objectives, financial situation or needs.
Written by Christopher Lioutas
Chairman – Harbourside Investment Management
